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Radzinsky

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Posted: Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:36 pm    Post subject: I posted this on 4/4/07
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First of all, I want to give jg a great shout out for emailing me and letting me know (or maybe reminding me, since I'm sure JackedUp told me about this forum at some point) about LOSTCastsFanForum.  The boards on LOSTCasts have been pretty bleak for the past few episodes, and I had pretty much pulled back to talking about Lost with just family and friends.  But... very, very glad to find you guys.  Especially because I get to brag about the following post that I threw out on LOSTCasts over a year ago, on April 4, 2007!!!  Check it out:

**CERBERUS IS THE OTHERS' PERSONAL SECURITY SYSTEM**

Screw that sonic fence. The Others control Smokey and they use him for protection. They use him for all sorts of purposes. I'm making this one up as I go, but I'm sort of excited about it. See what you think.

The foundation of this theory is that, as I said above, the Others have some sort of mild telepathic ability -- or at least some way to interface with the Island's mysterious powers -- and that Cerberus also functions using some of that mysterious energy. I'm wondering if the Others' connection to that telepathy allowed them to originally create, and now control, Cerberus.

Here's my evidence, and it covers almost the whole Lost mythology (so apologies again for the width and breadth). I'll try to go in some chronological order:

(1) Cerberus encounters the crash survivors immediately

What happens as soon as the Others see Flight 815 break apart overhead? Ben orders Goodwin and Ethan to make their way to the camps of survivors, to take down lists of names. But right away on the first night, we also hear Cerberus rumbling through the jungle. Could it have been gathering information on the survivors as it gathered information about Eko? At least enough to let the Others know who was present on their Island? (If anyone else has information they think contributes to this first point, share it, because I don't think I'm getting it all here)

(2) Cerberus goes to the cockpit

Jack, Charlie and Kate wander off to the cockpit, to try and find a transponder so that they can signal help. Smokey's all over it. Why? Because the Others want to keep the survivors away from the cockpit and all that equipment like nobody's business. In the same way that they don't want the survivors to have a sailboat and have been extremely protective of every bit of information that the survivors know, they sure as sh!t don't want the survivors to contact the outside world. What's another way they make sure that doesn't happen? They take out the pilot! I was always struggling for a reason to understand why the pilot died immediately... it wasn't like he was being judged like Eko... there wasn't enough time for him to really have merited any attention from Smokey or the Others... unless the mere fact that he was a *pilot* was enough to have him killed. The Others had their security system Cerberus get to the cockpit, take out the pilot, and then chase Jack, Kate and Charlie away from the part of the plane that had the most sophisticated navigation and communication equipment -- perfectly in tune with what we know the Others' motivations to be.

(3) Cerberus animates Jack's Dad

This is under some debate, but there are enough of us out there to think that Cerberus takes the form of, or animates, dead people -- Jack's Dad and Yemi included. With Jack's Dad, I think the Others have realized that Jack isn't on Jacob's list -- meaning he's one of the good guys, and that Christian Shepard can be used to help Jack out... to lead him to fresh water and the caves.

(4) Cerberus encounters Locke

Locke is another one that the Others' like -- Ben has said so on multiple occasions now. And, continuing with the Others' control of Cerberus theme, Cerberus encounters Locke in the jungle the first time Locke is hunting for boar. Locke looks into the center of Cerberus and says that what he saw was "beautiful". Later, because Locke is one of the "good ones" the Others have decided that they want him. We now know that Ben knew that he had cancer and that Locke had regained use of his legs... and that Ben wanted Locke to help him understand how it was that the Island was helping his health. Is it such a stretch to imagine that when Cerberus was trying to pull Locke down into one of its Vents, it was really the Others trying to get an early hold of Locke, to bring him over to their camp?

(5) Rousseau calls Cerberus a "security system"

This is sort of the obvious support for the theory here, but it deserves a little more credence since we can be pretty sure that Rosseau is more involved with Dharma and the Others than she previously said. If Rousseau is really the last Dharma, as I suspect, then she knows more about Cerberus than she says. If she calls it a security system, she's probably right... and if she's Dharma and she's scared of Cerberus, it likely also means that the Others control Cerberus, and that's why she needs to stay away from it... just as she stays away from the Flame Station and the Others' village.

* * * * *

Anyway, really sorry for the length this time, but when things start to fit together, the words just keep coming.

If any of you can think of other examples/reasons why Cerberus might be under the Others control, I'd really like to hear them.

And I hope this next missive is at least reasonably on target.

~Radzinsky


Posted by: Radzinsky | April 04, 2007 at 03:44 PM
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Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:27 am    Post subject:
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I am not sure the others control cerebus.
- Ben said to run after he woke it up; if he controlled SMOKEY then he would not be worried about it grabbing the people he was with.
-The others kept the fence up as well.

I am not sure Ben can summon it mentally. If it could be summoned mentally, Ben would have done so to protect Alex. The method Ben used:
-entering special room
-Going through the wardrobe (another narnia reference)
-entering the earth(?)
-Coming back dirty and smudged
This implies a ritual or method, not a mental communication. Or maybe some mental but other things as well.

My take on that was, the Others (and probably Dharma) knew how to wake SMOKEY. The errected a fence to keep him out, so they could wake SMOKEY. When woken he comes out, quite enraged it appears.

I think SMOKEY protects the island, not a particular group. I think each side can try to set SMOKEY on the other. Ben was worried that SMOKEY would turn on them, and we have seen SMOKEY turn on Eko and Locke in earlier episodes.

My personal theory (which I am sure I have bothered ya'll with before) is that the island meets force with force. The more militant you are the more militantly SMOKEY and the island responds. The Tailies and the military group both fared poorly on the island; while the Losties and Naiomi's group of misfits and crazy people fared pretty well.

If you try to get to the interior of the island, SMOKEY will stop you. Stay at the beach or Danielle old house, SMOKEY will not bother you.
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Chris In Oly

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Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 1:30 am    Post subject:
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That last post was me, I cannot seem to stay logged in. Oh well...
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boxman

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 3:07 am    Post subject:
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I agree, there is no evidence that the others have any control over Smokey.
It's obviously not a security system for Othersville, why the sonic fence?
Maybe it's an unnecessary precaution but it definitely does not imply control.
Yes, Ben controlled Smokey, but only how he controlled Juliet, Michael, Sayid etc.
He bent it's will (pissed it off) to serve his own purpose.
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Radzinsky

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:00 am    Post subject:
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I respectfully disagree with you guys.  First of all, keep in mind that I wrote that above post over a year ago.  We had much less information about Smokey and the Island generally at that time.  But a few more observations prompted by your posts here:

(1) You're forgetting that the Others DIDN'T BUILD OTHERSVILLE, the Dharma Initiative did.  Dharma could not control Smokey.  They may have needed the sonic fence as protection.  Ben and the Others?  Not so much.

(2) We also don't know that the underground secret room that Ben has -- and the corresponding passage to the older, hieroglyphic covered door -- was created by Dharma.  It could be that Ben had that installed once the Others took over the Barracks.

(3) Ben unquestionably summoned Smokey to take care of the invading mercenaries, and there are a few means by which we can guess he did that.  First off, he said the Smoke Monster was connected to, or an outgrowth of, Jacob.  We know Ben can communicate with Jacob and so that level of control is not unforeseen.  Further -- and this is a theory I developed on the old LostCasts -- all the whispers on the Island are most likely not spoken words but thoughts -- and they predominantly come from the Others.  I believe there is some low-level telepathy among the Others, perhaps centered on Jacob, perhaps not -- but this mental connection is the means by which Ben (and Locke) communicate with the Island, with Jacob, and with the Smoke Monster.

(4) We know from the secret Lost jigsaw puzzles (see them here if you haven't ever looked at them http://www.lostpedia.com/wiki/Jigsaw_puzzle) that the abbreviation CV on the Blast Door Map that trapped Locke stands for "Cerberus Vent."  We've interpreted that to mean that there are a series of openings, or "vents," across the Island that Smokey/Cerberus surfaces from.  Understanding that Cerberus in mythology is the three-headed dog that guards the gates to Hell, it's safe to surmise that Smokey lives UNDER the Island, in some series of subterranean passages (that may also be why trees shoot UPWARDS when Smokey travels quickly -- he's churning through the underground and his travel bursts trees up by the roots).  The secret door in Ben's house is a connection to those ancient underground Cerberus passages.  Ben slipped in to what we can guess is Cerberus' home, his HQ, and somehow communicated what was going down on the Island and who it had to attack.  Or, perhaps Ben just let Smokey out into the wild, like a caged beast that he released.  Either way, Ben certainly had some measure of control over what Smokey did.
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Mark B

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:24 am    Post subject:
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Ben released Smokey. I think that much is plain. However I'm not sure how much control Ben had on what Smokey would do. I liken Smokey to a caged, untrained, attack-dog.  Once released he will attack anything and the owner has little to no control. For some reason Smokey attacks certain people, Eko, Keamy etc but others he leaves alone, Juliet, Locke, initially Eko etc. Perhaps Smokey can in some way sense threats to the island. Initally Eko was not a threat then overtime he became one.

I think that the door was there long before Dharma, it had the look of an ancient door way. The carvings reminded me more of native American or Aborigianal type drawings than anything modern even heiroglyps. They may be some warning like "Dragons Be Here".

I'm just brain dumping ..... what do I know.
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Radzinsky

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 11:38 am    Post subject:
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Mark -- I'm going to start a new thread on the nature of Smokey, because I think we're veering into that territory.  I've got a lot of thoughts on it and I don't want to lump them under this thread.
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ebonX

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 1:15 pm    Post subject:
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I agree with Mark B on this one ... I think the caged attack dog/wild animal comparison is appropriate.

I think that Cerberus is truly a "security system" for the Island ... I mean that Smokey pretty much "deals" with anyone who is on the Island, but is not supposed to be there ... This would explain why it only attacks certain people (Keamy, 815 Pilot, Eko, ...).

As far as who built Ben's super secret lair ... DHARMA or the Others ... Do we know if that house is the same house Ben grew up in? It would be an interesting twist, if we discover that Ben's house used to be Widmore's residence when he was on the Island (probably during the DHARMA days).
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Radzinsky

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 5:10 pm    Post subject: What is the Smoke Monster? Theories inside:
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Over the past few days, there's been a lot of chatter about the Smoke Monster (a.k.a. Smokey, a.k.a. Cerebus).  Ben's summoning of Smokey and ass-kicking that Smokey delivered to the freighter mercenaries prompted a lot of questions about the nature of the creature, it's relationship to Ben, to the Others and to the Island.  I was hoping that on this thread we could put some promising thoughts together on the nature of the Smoke Monster.

Here's my best theory (it's a long one and it draws from a lot of other theories and sources).  Have at it, everyone...

*** THE SMOKE MONSTER: A Manifestation of Jacob and the Island ***

In semi-chronological order, I'll try to present my argument for how Jacob and Smokey are inextricably linked, how the connection between the Others and Jacob implies a relationship between Smokey and the Others, and how the interests of Jacob, Smokey, the Others and the Island have always been aligned.

(1) In The Beginning

Right from the get-go, Smokey was all up in the Losties' business.  It was churning through the woods on their very first night, bumping trees and moaning.  Rose was prompted to say that night that she "heard sounds like that growing up in the Bronx," I believe.  The significance of this is that it squares with Ben and the Others' early interest in the survivors.  Ben sends Goodwin and Ethan to immediately infiltrate both groups -- could he have also sent Smokey to investigate the survivors?  (And by investigate, I mean photograph their memories?)

Smokey also commits a violent act early in the show.  He kills the Oceanic 815 pilot.  Why the pilot?  What purpose would that serve?  Who benefits (or, in pompous Latin, cui bono)?  It has always been Ben's goal to keep the Island's location secret -- and an airline pilot is clearly a threat to that.  He would be best equipped to use the plane's location devices (transponder, et al), he would know approximately where they went down -- all in all, a bad guy to leave alive if you're trying to stay hidden.  So Smokey hangs him out to dry, literally.  But interestingly, Smokey then chases Charlie, Jack and Kate away from the plane, without really harming them at all.  Why the sudden restraint?  Couldn't Smokey just reach out and grab them?  Perhaps the hesitation isn't about trying to hurt the survivors, but rather to herd them away from the plane -- the place where they're most likely to locate equipment that will help them get home and help others locate the Island.  After all, we've heard Ben say before, "I want that boat," when it came to Desmond's yacht.  Is it such a stretch to imagine Ben saying, "I want that plane?" or "I want that cockpit?"

There's one more development that comes EARLY in the show, so early that we only just saw it.  And it's very significant in my mind.  Did everyone catch the Lost: Missing Pieces clips?  Particularly the one that features Jack's Dad, Christian Shepard, and Vincent the golden retriever?  Christian, recently resurrected and having left his coffin, finds Vincent and tells him to go wake Jack up.  He says that Jack, "has work to do."  I believe that Christian Shepard is a manifestation of the Smoke Monster and Jacob and therefore this is a critically important scene -- but we'll get to that after I've described a few more developments.

One more critical piece to add here: the Whispers.  They're not whispers.  They're thoughts.  From people, from the Others, maybe from Jacob, but also from animals.  Polar bears.  No kidding.  If you look at a transcript of the whispers, even from the pilot episode, as Sawyer is shooting the charging polar bear, there's a whisper that says, "bullets can't hurt me."  Now, clearly, as we know the bear can't speak -- no matter how smart the Dharma bears might have been -- we have to assume that the whisper communicates the bear's thoughts.  Just keep this in mind as I develop this theory further.

(2) Smokey and Locke

Smokey's next major Island appearance occurs as it's chasing Kate, Michael and Locke during their first boar hunt.  Kate and Michael escape the creature, but Locke is almost cornered by it.  However, from the camera angle (and this is S1, E4), you can tell that Smokey doesn't attack.  Rather, he towers up above Locke and focuses on his head.  We've seen that another time -- when Smokey reads Eko's thoughts (and presumably it did the same thing to Juliet).  We also know that Jacob and the Others are VERY interested in Locke.  This is the first instance where Smokey and the Island size Locke up, for lack of a better phrase.  Smokey/Jacob have a good idea that Locke is there to help them -- and of course he eventually becomes the Island's avatar -- but they're still just in the feeling-out process here.  Later, Locke will describe what he saw in the Smoke Monster to Eko as "beautiful."

We don't see Smokey again until the survivors are covered in Artz, coming back from the Black Rock with dynamite.  As Smokey is chasing them all through the woods, he grabs Locke and tries to drag him down an opening in the ground.  (We now know that this opening is a "Cerberus Vent," one of several points at which Smokey can surface from what is likely his underground lair/tunnels -- which are also connected to the basement of Ben's house).  Locke, looking calm, tells Jack to let him go.  He wants Smokey to take him.  Of course, Jack pulls him up and we don't learn any more at that time.  But again, we should ask -- why does Smokey want Locke?  Who else does?  Jacob does.  The Others do.  More on that in the coming sections.

(3) Smokey and Eko

Smokey next turns his focus to Eko, and though I have to admit to an inconsistency in my theory here, I can explain it.  There's also a critical piece of Smokey lore that we learn from Eko's brother, Yemi, that goes a long way to explaining the connection between Smokey and Jacob.

First off, we have the critical scene where Smokey photographs Eko's memories.  It envelops Eko's head, reads his mind, and absorbs his thoughts.  Why so critical?  I believe that this is how Smokey gets the information necessary to animate Yemi's corpse.  Like Jack and his father, Eko goes looking for his brother's body in the crashed biplane.  And, like Jack's Dad, Yemi's body has disappeared -- although, on a prior visit, the body was there.  The body's disappearance corresponds with healthy-zombie-Yemi's appearance on the Island.  

Now then, I do have to explain why it is that Smokey kills Eko.  Would the Island have somehow decided that Eko was unfit?  Dangerous?  Did Jacob dislike him or did the Others?  To explain this, I have to veer out of the storyline and use some real-life information.  We know that Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, the actor who played Eko, wanted off of the show -- he wasn't such a fan of the demands of network television.  I believe this put the writers into a corner -- they had to write Eko off of the show earlier than they intended.  Didn't it strike anyone else as odd that Smokey would summarily execute Eko?  With no emotional buildup, no story consequence?  I found it odd.  I can only surmise that Eko's involvement with Smokey was supposed to lead to his greater involvement with the Island -- he was a GREAT character after all -- but real life events changed that plan.

More important here are the similarities between Jack's Dad and Yemi -- the two missing corpses who mysteriously appear, healthy, on the Island.  If you believe that Smokey is connected to Yemi's reappearance, Christian Shepard's reappearance takes on a ton of additional meaning.  More on that to come.

(4) Smokey and Juliet

Smokey introduces himself to Juliet next, while she's handcuffed to Kate (anyone particularly enjoy that, by the way?).   Smokey scans Juliet's mind, presumably as it did Eko's, but Kate and Juliet are able to hid behind the Dharma sonic fence.  Juliet tells Kate, "we don't know what it is, but it doesn't like our fence."  Clearly, this is at least partially a lie.  Juliet may not know what it is, but it wasn't originally the Others' fence, and there's no reason to trust Juliet in this situation anyway.

Importantly, however, recall that at this time Juliet's loyalties weren't exactly certain.  She'd been through an awful mess with Ben -- not being able to go home, having her sister shown to her, having lost Goodwin -- Ben, ever the master-manipulator, would have been fully aware that Juliet's loyalties were in question.  Could Smokey have been reading her mind?  For Ben?  Perhaps implausible, but something I'll put out there.

(5) Meeting Jacob

Huh?  How do we get from reviewing Smokey's appearances to reviewing Jacob's appearances?  From one extremely brief, but critical connection.  Jack's Dad.  In Jacob's rocking chair.  Gimme a second, we'll get there.

The first thing that's so important about meeting Jacob and seeing his shack is Jacob's obvious affinity for Locke.  Jacob shows himself to Locke AND he speaks to him.  What does he say?  HELP ME.  Jacob NEEDS Locke.  Is it any coincidence then, that Locke has been so tied to the Island from the get-go?  That Smokey sought Locke out immediately and tried to drag him down into the Island's underground?  Jacob and the Island have always been interested in Locke, and with Jacob's request for Locke's help, we are starting to learn why.  

The second time that we see Jacob's shack, when Hurley stumbles across it, a curious thing happens.  In the rocking chair, where we once saw an image (presumably of Jacob) we see Christian Shepard.  http://lostpedia.com/wiki/Image:Cap08.jpg  What?  WTF?  What is Jack's Dad doing in Jacob's shack?  Let's draw back through the connections: (1) Smokey reads Eko's mind; (2) Yemi's corpse is missing; (3) healthy Yemi meets Eko; (4) Smokey kills Eko; (5) Christian Shepard's corpse is missing; (6) Christian Shepard appears healthy on the Island; (7) Christian Shepard appears in Jacob's shack.  

So this is a major piece.  To me, it's a strong link between Jacob and the Smoke Monster.  Christian Shepard, animated by Smokey, somehow resides in and around Jacob in the shifting shack.  And, accordingly, Christian Shepard's on-Island actions can be attributed to Smokey and Jacob.  I'll return to that observation after a bit more exposition.

(7) Jacob and Walt

Huh?  Another connection that doesn't seem to make any sense.  But wait... let's look at the Missing Pieces mobisodes again.  There's one about Walt.  When Walt is trapped in Room 23 (the brainwashing room) and in the Others' custody, Ben is faced with a problem -- Walt is freaking everyone out and Juliet wants him let go.  Ben refuses.  He says that "Jacob wanted him here."  Really?  Jacob wanted Walt?  Fascinating.  Why so important?  The next time we see Walt, he appears in front of Locke.  Locke's been shot in the gut, he's in a Dharma mass grave, and Walt tells him to get up.  Walt tells Locke, quiet specifically, that "he has work to do."  Hmm... sounds familiar...

(Cool Jacob, Christian Shepard and Jack

Yes, these are the same words that Christian Shepard used JUST before the entire show starts, when the plane has crashed and Jack is lying in the bamboo forest.  We're back where this whole theory started.  Christian Shepard pulls Vincent close to his face and *speaks* to him.  (I told you that animals' thoughts were important on this Island).  He tells Vincent to go wake Jack up, because Jack "has work to do."  Same as Locke.

We all know that there are no accidents on Lost.  Language is very deliberate.  So, we know that Jacob wants Locke, that Jacob wants Walt, and that Walt delivers a message, presumably from Jacob and the Island, that Locke has work to do.  Jack gets the same message, also presumably from Smokey/Jacob/the Island, that HE has work to do.  And, if you want further evidence that the Island/Jacob has special plans for Jack, think back to the very first flash-forward.  Jack thought of jumping off a bridge, but he couldn't -- he couldn't kill himself.  Just like Michael couldn't shoot himself in the head more recently.  *The Island wouldn't let him.*

And, if I had to make a bet, I think that if we could see Jack from the moment he falls out of the plane to the moment he wakes up, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he got a head-visit from Smokey -- so that Jacob/Smokey would have the information it needed to animate Christian Shepard.

(9) Ben Summoning Smokey

Finally, in last week's episode we get confirmatinon that Ben has at least some control over Smokey's actions.  There's debate as to whether Ben directs the monster to attack the freighter mercenaries, or whether he just lets the beast out of its cage, so to speak.  But I feel there's a little more we can take from it besides an obvious relationship between Ben and the Smoke Monster.  Ben's connection isn't directly to Smokey, it's to Jacob.  Same as Locke's.  Whatever agency Ben has over Smokey comes from his (likely telepathic) ability commune with Jacob and the Island.  So, when the conflagration is over and Locke asks Ben -- again -- "what is the smoke monster" -- Ben's answer this time is that Locke "can ask all about it when they reach Jacob."  

As if the connection needed any more validation after all this typing.  Smile

So -- I think I hit all the points I wanted to hit.  Even if I haven't, my fingers are tired from typing.  Sincere thanks to anyone who's read this far.  I've been buildling this baby up for a while.  Love to hear everyone's thoughts.

~Radzinsky
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ebonX

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 6:49 pm    Post subject:
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Radzinsky has started a new thread on this topic, so I am going to merge this thread into the new one ...
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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:20 pm    Post subject:
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Ah welcome back Radz, now I will read your braggadocios post.

How did you not find this place sooner?
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Radzinsky

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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:32 pm    Post subject:
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I wasted a little more time on LOSTCasts, which sort of blows now.  JG emailed me, told me about the forum.  Really glad to be back among the thinkers.  Hope my post isn't *too* pompous for you.  Smile

And PLEASE tell me your avatar here is a joke.  Hillary?  Really?
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Posted: Wed Apr 30, 2008 7:39 pm    Post subject:
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It's a joke, I think it looks like shes is a Nazi in the picture. I make my political allegiance quite clear in the rec room here.

As far as your theory, what I've absorbed so far, I have always liked it but found it very swiss cheese like. Meaning full of holes of course. I think it's more likely that Cerberus is a sort of security system for the Island then for the Others.

I also think Ben and a very select few others have any idea how it works.

Obviously Dharma did not or they would not have constructed the fence.

The other thought is that someone in Dharma understood just as Ben does and will not let the masses know about it because of course in the Island world. Knowledge is very clearly power.  

I think you are on the right track as well with your connection to Jacob. I am all but convinced the same entity\consciousness that manifests itself the Cerberus is responsible for Christian Shepard and Yemi apparitions as well as Jacob and his cabin.

As for Christian in the chair is that officially confirmed. All i heard was Carlton Cuse say those who noticed Christian Shepard in the episode were astute in their observation.
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Posted: Thu May 01, 2008 2:56 pm    Post subject:
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The theory you propose is interesting, but there are few things I don't quite get:

1. Taking out People who Don't Belong
If Smokey sees you militantly charge into the protected areas of the jungle, he wipes you out without so much as a simple mind reading. Keamy's crew and the pilot appeared militant, so he took them out. (Flying a plane into the jungle kinda fits into that category, and I think Smoke finds his prey by focussing on the mind - so once the Losties woke up the pilot Smokey could find him and get rid of him.)

1. Smokey Killing Eko and Pulling Locke into the Ground
I always interpretted this to be that Smokey likes to play with his food so to speak. If he is not sure if you are dangewous or not, then he will check you out - as he did Eko and Locke. Once he decides you pose a threat, as Eko did when he would not act subserviently to Smokey, then Smokey removes you. Locke was going to mess with the button which I do not think the island wanted to stop, and Smokey attempted to stop him.

3. Ben Waking Up Smokey
Nothing in the way Ben acted indicated summoning or control. Ben went into the special location and essentially poked the hornets nest with a stick. Smokey showed up and went to town. The advice Ben gave the Losties was to run, not 'I got it under control.' If Smokey was safe they would have stayed in the house and not run outside, letting Smokey take out the commando team. When Smokey showed up they used the distraction to run from both Smokey and Keamy.

4. Jacob and Smokey
Nothing in the show has indicated Smokey works for Jacob, or are equals. Smokey may be one aspect working for the island and Jacob the other. I get the sense that the Temple would explain both entities more, but I think there may be more than just the two power entities on the island. I am not sure Smokey and Jacob are working together. In my mind, think mythology of Greek Gods, they meet and talk, but actively fight each other through people.

5. Ben and Jacob
The idea also assumes that Ben is working for Jacob and allied with him. We know that Jaocb/island took the healing powers away from Ben for a while since he was not acting properly. He killed Locke when it seems Jacob wanted Locke to work for him. I think your assumption is that Ben is only doing Jacobs work, but I do not think this is the case. Ben and Jacob have similar interests, but Ben has his own agenda. (On an aside, I think Widmore has his own entity similar to Jacob, that is his mentor in the pursuit of the island.)

So I think Smokey simply keeps all people away from the protected portions of the island. Ben does not control him, nor does Jacob. Smokey has his own set of rules, follows them, and that is all. Ben gambled Smokey would consider Keamy's gang a greater threat and take them out first, allowing him time to get away to portions of the island Smokey does not pattrol. But he fled Smokey because he knew Smokey would also take him out as well.
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